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METTLE'S EDGE

Home Run Threats

Straights or 2–3 leg parlays give the best edge. Odds drop sharply with each extra leg. This sheet averages ~85% prop hits—avoid 20-leg parlays.
Most Probable (≥75%) Probable (60–74.9%) Less Likely (<60%)
RankPlayer (Team)Opponent (Pitcher)HR Prob %Last 10 HRsKey Factors
1Aaron Judge (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
2Adam Frazier (KC)vs @PHI45.70Multi-signal power spot
3Adrian Del Castillo (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
4Agustin Ramirez (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
5Alec Burleson (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
6Alejandro Kirk (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
7Alejandro Osuna (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
8Alek Thomas (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
9Alex Bregman (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
10Alexander Canario (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
11Andre Pallante (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
12Andrew Benintendi (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
13Andrew McCutchen (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
14Andrew Vaughn (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
15Andy Pages (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
16Angel Martinez (CLE)vs CWS25.00Multi-signal power spot
17Austin Hays (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
18Austin Hedges (CLE)vs CWS25.00Multi-signal power spot
19Austin Martin (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
20Austin Wells (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
21Ben Rice (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
22Blake Perkins (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
23Blaze Alexander (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
24Bobby Witt (KC)vs @PHI25.00Multi-signal power spot
25Brad Lord (WSH)vs PIT25.00Multi-signal power spot
26Brady House (WSH)vs PIT25.00Multi-signal power spot
27Brady Singer (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
28Brandon Lowe (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
29Brandon Marsh (PHI)vs KC25.00Multi-signal power spot
30Brandon Nimmo (NYM)vs TEX25.00Multi-signal power spot
31Brandon Pfaadt (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
32Brayan Rocchio (CLE)vs CWS25.00Multi-signal power spot
33Brent Rooker (ATH)vs CIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
34Brenton Doyle (COL)vs @SD41.10Multi-signal power spot
35Brett Baty (NYM)vs TEX25.00Multi-signal power spot
36Brice Turang (MIL)vs STL0.50Multi-signal power spot
37Brooks Baldwin (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
38Brooks Lee (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
39Bryan Reynolds (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
40Bryce Harper (PHI)vs KC25.00Multi-signal power spot
41Bryce Teodosio (LAA)vs @SEA25.00Multi-signal power spot
42Bryson Stott (PHI)vs KC25.00Multi-signal power spot
43Byron Buxton (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
44CJ Abrams (WSH)vs PIT25.00Multi-signal power spot
45Cal Raleigh (SEA)vs LAA25.00Multi-signal power spot
46Caleb Durbin (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
47Cam Devanney (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
48Carlos Correa (HOU)vs @ATL25.00Multi-signal power spot
49Carlos Narvaez (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
50Carson Kelly (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
51Carson Williams (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
52Casey Schmitt (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
53Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
54Cedric Mullins (NYM)vs TEX25.00Multi-signal power spot
55Chandler Simpson (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
56Chase Meidroth (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
57Chris Bassitt (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
58Christian Walker (HOU)vs @ATL25.00Multi-signal power spot
59Christian Yelich (MIL)vs STL1.20Multi-signal power spot
60Christopher Morel (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
61Coby Mayo (BAL)vs @TOR25.00Multi-signal power spot
62Cody Bellinger (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
63Cody Freeman (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
64Colson Montgomery (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
65Colt Keith (DET)vs @MIA25.00Multi-signal power spot
66Colton Cowser (BAL)vs @TOR39.90Multi-signal power spot
67Corbin Carroll (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
68Danny Jansen (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
69Dansby Swanson (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
70Darell Hernaiz (ATH)vs CIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
71David Fry (CLE)vs CWS25.00Multi-signal power spot
72Davis Schneider (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
73Daylen Lile (WSH)vs PIT25.00Multi-signal power spot
74Dillon Dingler (DET)vs @MIA25.00Multi-signal power spot
75Dominic Smith (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
76Drew Gilbert (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
77Dylan Beavers (BAL)vs @TOR25.00Multi-signal power spot
78Dylan Crews (WSH)vs PIT25.00Multi-signal power spot
79Edgar Quero (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
80Edmundo Sosa (PHI)vs KC25.00Multi-signal power spot
81Edouard Julien (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
82Elly De La Cruz (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
83Emmanuel Rivera (BAL)vs @TOR25.00Multi-signal power spot
84Eric Wagaman (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
85Ernie Clement (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
86Eugenio Suarez (SEA)vs LAA49.93Multi-signal power spot
87Everson Pereira (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
88Ezequiel Tovar (COL)vs @SD25.00Multi-signal power spot
89Fernando Tatis (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
90Francisco Alvarez (NYM)vs TEX25.00Multi-signal power spot
91Francisco Lindor (NYM)vs TEX25.00Multi-signal power spot
92Freddie Freeman (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
93Freddy Fermin (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
94Gabriel Arias (CLE)vs CWS25.00Multi-signal power spot
95Gabriel Moreno (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
96Gavin Lux (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
97Gavin Sheets (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
98George Springer (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
99Geraldo Perdomo (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
100Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
101Gleyber Torres (DET)vs @MIA48.60Multi-signal power spot
102Gunnar Henderson (BAL)vs @TOR47.02Multi-signal power spot
103Harrison Bader (PHI)vs KC25.00Multi-signal power spot
104Heliot Ramos (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
105Henry Davis (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
106Heriberto Hernandez (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
107Hunter Goodman (COL)vs @SD25.00Multi-signal power spot
108Hurston Waldrep (ATL)vs HOU25.00Multi-signal power spot
109Hyeseong Kim (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
110Ian Happ (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
111Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
112Ivan Herrera (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
113J.P. Crawford (SEA)vs LAA45.70Multi-signal power spot
114J.T. Realmuto (PHI)vs KC25.00Multi-signal power spot
115JJ Bleday (ATH)vs CIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
116JP Sears (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
117Jac Caglianone (KC)vs @PHI25.00Multi-signal power spot
118Jackson Chourio (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
119Jackson Holliday (BAL)vs @TOR25.00Multi-signal power spot
120Jackson Merrill (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
121Jacob Wilson (ATH)vs CIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
122Jacob deGrom (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
123Jake Bauers (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
124Jake Burger (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
125Jake Cronenworth (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
126Jake McCarthy (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
127Jake Meyers (HOU)vs @ATL25.00Multi-signal power spot
128Jakob Marsee (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
129James Wood (WSH)vs PIT25.00Multi-signal power spot
130Jared Triolo (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
131Jarren Duran (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
132Javier Sanoja (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
133Jazz Chisholm (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
134Jeff McNeil (NYM)vs TEX25.00Multi-signal power spot
135Jeremiah Jackson (BAL)vs @TOR25.00Multi-signal power spot
136Jeremy Pena (HOU)vs @ATL25.00Multi-signal power spot
137Jesus Sanchez (HOU)vs @ATL25.00Multi-signal power spot
138Jhonkensy Noel (CLE)vs CWS25.00Multi-signal power spot
139Jhonny Pereda (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
140Jimmy Crooks (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
141Jo Adell (LAA)vs @SEA25.00Multi-signal power spot
142Joc Pederson (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
143Joey Ortiz (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
144Joey Wiemer (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
145Jonah Tong (NYM)vs TEX25.00Multi-signal power spot
146Jonathan India (KC)vs @PHI25.00Multi-signal power spot
147Jordan Beck (COL)vs @SD25.00Multi-signal power spot
148Jorge Polanco (SEA)vs LAA25.00Multi-signal power spot
149Jose Altuve (HOU)vs @ATL25.00Multi-signal power spot
150Jose Caballero (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
151Jose Fermin (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
152Jose Ramirez (CLE)vs CWS1.61Multi-signal power spot
153Josh Bell (WSH)vs PIT41.11Multi-signal power spot
154Josh Jung (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
155Josh Lowe (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
156Josh Naylor (SEA)vs LAA25.00Multi-signal power spot
157Josh Smith (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
158Juan Soto (NYM)vs TEX0.70Multi-signal power spot
159Julio Rodriguez (SEA)vs LAA3.50Multi-signal power spot
160Jung Hoo Lee (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
161Junior Caminero (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
162Justin Verlander (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
163Ke'Bryan Hayes (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
164Kerry Carpenter (DET)vs @MIA25.00Multi-signal power spot
165Ketel Marte (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
166Kody Clemens (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
167Kyle Farmer (COL)vs @SD25.00Multi-signal power spot
168Kyle Higashioka (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
169Kyle Isbel (KC)vs @PHI25.00Multi-signal power spot
170Kyle Karros (COL)vs @SD25.00Multi-signal power spot
171Kyle Manzardo (CLE)vs CWS25.00Multi-signal power spot
172Kyle Schwarber (PHI)vs KC30.72Multi-signal power spot
173Kyle Teel (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
174Lars Nootbaar (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
175Lawrence Butler (ATH)vs CIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
176Lenyn Sosa (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
177Lucas Giolito (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
178Luis Arraez (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
179Luis Castillo (SEA)vs LAA25.00Multi-signal power spot
180Luis Garcia (WSH)vs PIT25.00Multi-signal power spot
181Luis Gil (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
182Luis Rengifo (LAA)vs @SEA20.93Multi-signal power spot
183Luke Keaschall (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
184Maikel Garcia (KC)vs @PHI25.00Multi-signal power spot
185Manny Machado (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
186Mark Vientos (NYM)vs TEX25.00Multi-signal power spot
187Martin Perez (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
188Masataka Yoshida (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
189Matt Chapman (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
190Matt McLain (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
191Matt Shaw (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
192Matthew Boyd (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
193Max Kepler (PHI)vs KC25.00Multi-signal power spot
194Max Muncy (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
195Maximo Acosta (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
196Michael Busch (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
197Michael Conforto (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
198Michael Helman (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
199Michael Lorenzen (KC)vs @PHI25.00Multi-signal power spot
200Mickey Moniak (COL)vs @SD25.00Multi-signal power spot
201Miguel Vargas (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
202Mike Tauchman (CWS)vs @CLE25.00Multi-signal power spot
203Mike Trout (LAA)vs @SEA1.50Multi-signal power spot
204Mike Yastrzemski (KC)vs @PHI25.00Multi-signal power spot
205Mitch Garver (SEA)vs LAA30.90Multi-signal power spot
206Mitch Keller (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
207Mookie Betts (LAD)vs @SF49.00Multi-signal power spot
208Myles Straw (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
209Nathan Lukes (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
210Nathaniel Lowe (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
211Nick Fortes (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
212Nick Gonzales (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
213Nick Kurtz (ATH)vs CIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
214Nick Sogard (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
215Nick Yorke (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
216Nico Hoerner (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
217Noelvi Marte (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
218Nolan Gorman (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
219Orlando Arcia (COL)vs @SD25.00Multi-signal power spot
220Oswald Peraza (LAA)vs @SEA25.00Multi-signal power spot
221Otto Kemp (PHI)vs KC25.00Multi-signal power spot
222Otto Lopez (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
223Pablo Lopez (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
224Parker Meadows (DET)vs @MIA25.00Multi-signal power spot
225Patrick Bailey (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
226Pedro Pages (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
227Pete Alonso (NYM)vs TEX25.00Multi-signal power spot
228Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
229Quinn Priester (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
230Rafael Devers (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
231Ramon Laureano (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
232Randy Arozarena (SEA)vs LAA21.63Multi-signal power spot
233Riley Adams (WSH)vs PIT25.00Multi-signal power spot
234Riley Greene (DET)vs @MIA25.00Multi-signal power spot
235Robert Hassell (WSH)vs PIT25.00Multi-signal power spot
236Romy Gonzalez (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
237Royce Lewis (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
238Ryan McMahon (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
239Ryan Mountcastle (BAL)vs @TOR25.00Multi-signal power spot
240Ryan O'Hearn (SD)vs COL25.00Multi-signal power spot
241Sal Frelick (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
242Salvador Perez (KC)vs @PHI25.00Multi-signal power spot
243Samuel Basallo (BAL)vs @TOR25.00Multi-signal power spot
244Sandy Alcantara (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
245Seiya Suzuki (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
246Shane Baz (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
247Shea Langeliers (ATH)vs CIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
248Shohei Ohtani (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
249Spencer Steer (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
250Spencer Torkelson (DET)vs @MIA25.00Multi-signal power spot
251Steven Kwan (CLE)vs CWS25.00Multi-signal power spot
252TJ Friedl (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
253Tanner Bibee (CLE)vs CWS25.00Multi-signal power spot
254Tanner Gordon (COL)vs @SD25.00Multi-signal power spot
255Tarik Skubal (DET)vs @MIA25.00Multi-signal power spot
256Taylor Ward (LAA)vs @SEA1.60Multi-signal power spot
257Teoscar Hernandez (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
258Thomas Saggese (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
259Tim Tawa (ARI)vs @MIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
260Tommy Edman (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
261Tommy Pham (PIT)vs @WSH25.00Multi-signal power spot
262Travis d'Arnaud (LAA)vs @SEA25.00Multi-signal power spot
263Trent Grisham (NYY)vs @BOS25.00Multi-signal power spot
264Trevor Larnach (MIN)vs ARI25.00Multi-signal power spot
265Trevor Rogers (BAL)vs @TOR25.00Multi-signal power spot
266Trevor Story (BOS)vs NYY25.00Multi-signal power spot
267Ty France (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
268Tyler Freeman (COL)vs @SD25.00Multi-signal power spot
269Tyler Soderstrom (ATH)vs CIN25.00Multi-signal power spot
270Tyler Stephenson (CIN)vs @ATH25.00Multi-signal power spot
271Victor Caratini (HOU)vs @ATL25.00Multi-signal power spot
272Victor Robles (SEA)vs LAA25.00Multi-signal power spot
273Victor Scott (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
274Vinnie Pasquantino (KC)vs @PHI25.00Multi-signal power spot
275Vladimir Guerrero (TOR)vs BAL25.00Multi-signal power spot
276Walker Buehler (PHI)vs KC25.00Multi-signal power spot
277Wenceel Perez (DET)vs @MIA25.00Multi-signal power spot
278Will Smith (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
279Willi Castro (CHC)vs TB25.00Multi-signal power spot
280William Contreras (MIL)vs STL25.00Multi-signal power spot
281Willson Contreras (STL)vs @MIL25.00Multi-signal power spot
282Willy Adames (SF)vs LAD25.00Multi-signal power spot
283Wyatt Langford (TEX)vs @NYM25.00Multi-signal power spot
284Xavier Edwards (MIA)vs DET25.00Multi-signal power spot
285Yainer Diaz (HOU)vs @ATL25.00Multi-signal power spot
286Yandy Diaz (TB)vs @CHC25.00Multi-signal power spot
287Yoan Moncada (LAA)vs @SEA25.00Multi-signal power spot
288Yordan Alvarez (HOU)vs @ATL25.00Multi-signal power spot
289Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)vs @SF25.00Multi-signal power spot
290Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)vs @SEA25.00Multi-signal power spot
291Zach McKinstry (DET)vs @MIA25.00Multi-signal power spot
292Zach Neto (LAA)vs @SEA25.00Multi-signal power spot
293Zack Gelof (ATH)vs CIN25.00Multi-signal power spot