Strong Alpha Edge > 60%Moderate Value 50–60%< 50% Low Edge
WNBA — Prop Matrix
FanDuel Lines2026 Regular SeasonGame TotalsL5 TrackingTrue Probability is computed by running recent game distribution arrays directly against the FanDuel market line, layered with MettlesEdge micro-adjustments (stadium physics, weather density, short-rotation usage). Active 2026 regular-season tracking with pace-weighted game totals, expansion franchises, and live L5 game arrays.
Engine Calibrated & Active — Real-Time Analytics Sheet Engaged.
| Updated: July 12, 2026
📅 July 12, 3 PM EST
Market Insight Banner — SEA @ WAS
Public Split Proxy67% OVER / 33% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsAssists: open 50% baseline → close 5.5 · OVER steam (+4.5%) · Points: open 50% baseline → close 14.5 · OVER steam (+22.3%) · Rebounds: open 50% baseline → close 3.5 · UNDER steam (+-10.4%)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 3 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
Skylar Diggins-Smith (G) — SEA @ WAS
Points
14.5
OVER
74.64%
+22.34%
Skylar Diggins-Smith (G) — SEA @ WAS
Rebounds
3.5
UNDER
41.92%
+-10.38%
Skylar Diggins-Smith (G) — SEA @ WAS
Assists
5.5
OVER
56.84%
+4.54%
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — DAL vs CHI
Public Split Proxy100% OVER / 0% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsAssists: open 50% baseline → close 5.5 · OVER steam (+5.6%) · Points: open 50% baseline → close 18.5 · OVER steam (+35.5%) · Rebounds: open 50% baseline → close 4.5 · OVER steam (+6.6%)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 3 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
Paige Bueckers (G) — DAL vs CHI
Points
18.5
OVER
87.76%
+35.46%
Paige Bueckers (G) — DAL vs CHI
Rebounds
4.5
OVER
58.90%
+6.60%
Paige Bueckers (G) — DAL vs CHI
Assists
5.5
OVER
57.89%
+5.59%
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — GSV vs DAL
Public Split Proxy67% OVER / 33% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsAssists: open 50% baseline → close 4.5 · OVER steam (+6.6%) · Points: open 50% baseline → close 17.5 · OVER steam (+22.8%) · Rebounds: open 50% baseline → close 3.5 · UNDER steam (+-9.8%)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 3 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
Kelsey Plum (G) — GSV vs DAL
Points
17.5
OVER
75.13%
+22.83%
Kelsey Plum (G) — GSV vs DAL
Rebounds
3.5
UNDER
42.50%
+-9.80%
Kelsey Plum (G) — GSV vs DAL
Assists
4.5
OVER
58.90%
+6.60%
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — IND @ LVA
Public Split Proxy67% OVER / 33% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsAssists: open 50% baseline → close 6.0 · UNDER steam (+-1.2%) · Points: open 50% baseline → close 16.5 · OVER steam (+22.9%) · Rebounds: open 50% baseline → close 7.5 · UNDER steam (+6.9%)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 6 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
Caitlin Clark (G) — IND @ LVA
Points
17.5
OVER
75.33%
+23.03%
Caitlin Clark (G) — IND @ LVA
Rebounds
5.5
UNDER
43.88%
+-8.42%
Caitlin Clark (G) — IND @ LVA
Assists
8.5
OVER
59.77%
+7.47%
Aliyah Boston (C) — IND @ LVA
Points
15.5
OVER
75.09%
+22.79%
Aliyah Boston (C) — IND @ LVA
Rebounds
9.5
OVER
74.53%
+22.23%
Aliyah Boston (C) — IND @ LVA
Assists
3.5
UNDER
42.50%
+-9.80%
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — LVA vs IND
Public Split Proxy100% OVER / 0% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsAssists: open 50% baseline → close 2.5 · OVER steam (+5.5%) · Points: open 50% baseline → close 24.5 · OVER steam (+35.5%) · Rebounds: open 50% baseline → close 10.5 · OVER steam (+22.6%)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 3 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
A'ja Wilson (F) — LVA vs IND
Points
24.5
OVER
87.78%
+35.48%
A'ja Wilson (F) — LVA vs IND
Rebounds
10.5
OVER
74.95%
+22.65%
A'ja Wilson (F) — LVA vs IND
Assists
2.5
OVER
57.82%
+5.52%
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — MIN @ TOR
Public Split Proxy100% OVER / 0% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsAssists: open 50% baseline → close 3.5 · OVER steam (+4.2%) · Points: open 50% baseline → close 18.0 · OVER steam (+14.9%) · Rebounds: open 50% baseline → close 6.5 · OVER steam (+5.4%)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 6 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
Kayla McBride (G) — MIN @ TOR
Points
15.5
OVER
59.20%
+6.90%
Kayla McBride (G) — MIN @ TOR
Rebounds
3.5
OVER
56.84%
+4.54%
Kayla McBride (G) — MIN @ TOR
Assists
3.5
OVER
55.56%
+3.26%
Napheesa Collier (F) — MIN @ TOR
Points
20.5
OVER
75.24%
+22.94%
Napheesa Collier (F) — MIN @ TOR
Rebounds
9.5
OVER
58.59%
+6.29%
Napheesa Collier (F) — MIN @ TOR
Assists
3.5
OVER
57.52%
+5.22%
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — NYL @ TOR
Public Split Proxy100% OVER / 0% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsAssists: open 50% baseline → close 4.5 · OVER steam (+14.5%) · Points: open 50% baseline → close 18.0 · OVER steam (+22.9%) · Rebounds: open 50% baseline → close 6.5 · OVER steam (+6.4%)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 6 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
Breanna Stewart (F) — NYL @ TOR
Points
19.5
OVER
75.36%
+23.06%
Breanna Stewart (F) — NYL @ TOR
Rebounds
8.5
OVER
59.77%
+7.47%
Breanna Stewart (F) — NYL @ TOR
Assists
3.5
OVER
59.34%
+7.04%
Sabrina Ionescu (G) — NYL @ TOR
Points
16.5
OVER
75.11%
+22.81%
Sabrina Ionescu (G) — NYL @ TOR
Rebounds
4.5
OVER
57.71%
+5.41%
Sabrina Ionescu (G) — NYL @ TOR
Assists
5.5
OVER
74.32%
+22.02%
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — PHO @ ATL
Public Split Proxy67% OVER / 33% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsAssists: open 50% baseline → close 2.5 · OVER steam (+5.0%) · Points: open 50% baseline → close 16.5 · OVER steam (+22.8%) · Rebounds: open 50% baseline → close 4.5 · UNDER steam (+-9.6%)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 3 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
Kahleah Copper (F) — PHO @ ATL
Points
16.5
OVER
75.11%
+22.81%
Kahleah Copper (F) — PHO @ ATL
Rebounds
4.5
UNDER
42.69%
+-9.61%
Kahleah Copper (F) — PHO @ ATL
Assists
2.5
OVER
57.34%
+5.04%
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — TOR vs NYL
Public Split Proxy33% OVER / 67% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsAssists: open 50% baseline → close 2.5 · UNDER steam (+-9.1%) · Points: open 50% baseline → close 13.5 · OVER steam (+22.3%) · Rebounds: open 50% baseline → close 6.5 · UNDER steam (+-10.4%)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 3 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
Janelle Salaun (F) — TOR vs NYL
Points
13.5
OVER
74.64%
+22.34%
Janelle Salaun (F) — TOR vs NYL
Rebounds
6.5
UNDER
41.92%
+-10.38%
Janelle Salaun (F) — TOR vs NYL
Assists
2.5
UNDER
43.16%
+-9.14%
📅 July 12, 3 PM EST
Market Insight Banner — SEA @ WAS
Public Split Proxy50% OVER / 50% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsGame Total: open 50% baseline → close 165.5 · OVER steam (+42.2%) · Pace / Travel Context: UNDER steam (+0.0% vs open)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 2 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
SEA @ WAS
Game Total
165.5
OVER
92.17%
+42.17%
SEA @ WAS
Pace / Travel Context
Proj 187.9
Rest 0d | 2324 mi
-4.60%
—
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — CHI @ DAL
Public Split Proxy50% OVER / 50% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsGame Total: open 50% baseline → close 165.5 · OVER steam (+45.9%) · Pace / Travel Context: UNDER steam (+0.0% vs open)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 2 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
CHI @ DAL
Game Total
165.5
OVER
95.91%
+45.91%
CHI @ DAL
Pace / Travel Context
Proj 194.2
Rest 0d | 803 mi
-2.80%
—
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — IND @ LVA
Public Split Proxy50% OVER / 50% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsGame Total: open 50% baseline → close 165.5 · OVER steam (+68.0%) · Pace / Travel Context: UNDER steam (+0.0% vs open)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 2 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
IND @ LVA
Game Total
165.5
OVER
99.61%
+67.96%
IND @ LVA
Pace / Travel Context
Proj 215.8
Rest 0d | 1595 mi
-3.80%
—
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Market Insight Banner — NYL @ TOR
Public Split Proxy50% OVER / 50% UNDER public ticket proxy
Opening vs Closing VectorsGame Total: open 50% baseline → close 165.5 · OVER steam (+56.3%) · Pace / Travel Context: UNDER steam (+0.0% vs open)
Institutional read: balanced handle — 2 active WNBA prop(s) tracked vs FanDuel closing marks.
Player / Matchup
Prop Type
FanDuel Line
MettlesEdge Prediction
True Probability
Edge Margin
NYL @ TOR
Game Total
165.5
OVER
98.99%
+56.27%
NYL @ TOR
Pace / Travel Context
Proj 207.2
Rest 0d | 344 mi
-2.80%
—
MettlesEdge Sharp Insights distills the highest-variance game lines and player props into a concise institutional briefing.
📅 July 12, 3 PM EST
Featured Game LineOVER 14.5 POINTS — Skylar Diggins-Smith (G) [-110]
Matchup: SEA @ WAS The indoor environment favors an offensive explosion, as both teams boast potent scoring options that can exploit defensive lapses, particularly with Skylar Diggins-Smith likely to exceed her points prop of 14.5 given her strong scoring metrics and favorable matchup. The combination of a high-paced game script and the potential for increased offensive efficiency enhances the likelihood of a total that exceeds expectations. Look for the game to develop into a shootout, making the OVER a compelling consideration.
WNBA
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Featured Game LineOVER 18.5 POINTS — Paige Bueckers (G) [-110]
Matchup: DAL vs CHI The controlled indoor environment of this matchup favors an offensive explosion, as both teams boast high-paced playstyles and efficient scoring capabilities. Paige Bueckers is positioned to capitalize on this favorable run environment, with her scoring potential highlighted by an expected output significantly exceeding the 18.5 points line. Given the synergy of these offensive arsenals, betting the OVER presents a compelling opportunity.
WNBA
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Featured Game LineOVER 17.5 POINTS — Kelsey Plum (G) [-110]
Matchup: GSV vs DAL With a controlled indoor environment, both teams are expected to leverage their offensive strengths, leading to a high-scoring affair. Kelsey Plum's scoring potential aligns well with the projected pace of play, making the OVER 17.5 points a favorable bet given her solid probability of exceeding this line. The offensive conditions, combined with Plum's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, enhance the likelihood of a game script favoring the OVER.
WNBA
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Featured Game LineOVER 17.5 POINTS — Caitlin Clark (G) [-110]
Matchup: IND @ LVA With both teams showcasing potent offensive arsenals and a favorable indoor environment, the conditions are ripe for a high-scoring affair. Caitlin Clark's scoring ability aligns well with the projected run environment, especially given her strong probabilities to exceed her point total. Expect the game to unfold with an emphasis on offensive execution, pushing the total well over the line.
WNBA
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Featured Game LineOVER 24.5 POINTS — A'ja Wilson (F) [-110]
Matchup: LVA vs IND With both teams showcasing high-paced offensive play in a controlled indoor environment, expect a favorable run environment that leans towards the OVER. A'ja Wilson's scoring potential is bolstered by her usage rate and the matchup's defensive vulnerabilities, making her OVER 24.5 points a strong play. The combination of efficient shot selection and a conducive game script supports a high-scoring affair, enhancing the likelihood of exceeding the total.
WNBA
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Featured Game LineOVER 20.5 POINTS — Napheesa Collier (F) [-110]
Matchup: MIN @ TOR The controlled indoor environment favors offensive efficiency, with both teams capable of exploiting defensive mismatches, particularly through Napheesa Collier's scoring ability, which aligns with her strong expected points output. With a projected high-scoring dynamic supported by the offensive conditions and Collier's favorable matchup, the OVER 20.5 points stands out as a compelling play. Look for both teams to leverage their strengths, enhancing the overall run environment.
WNBA
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Featured Game LineOVER 19.5 POINTS — Breanna Stewart (F) [-110]
Matchup: NYL @ TOR With a controlled indoor environment favoring offensive efficiency, expect a high-scoring affair as both teams leverage their dynamic scoring arsenals. Breanna Stewart's significant edge in points prop aligns with the anticipated uptick in pace and scoring opportunities, particularly against a Toronto defense that struggles to contain versatile forwards. The combination of strong individual performances and favorable game script conditions supports the OVER total, making this matchup ripe for offensive fireworks.
WNBA
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Featured Game LineOVER 16.5 POINTS — Kahleah Copper (F) [-110]
Matchup: PHO @ ATL With both teams featuring potent offensive arsenals and operating in a controlled indoor environment, expect a high-scoring affair that favors the OVER. Kahleah Copper's scoring ability stands out, as her projected points significantly exceed the line of 16.5, indicating strong potential for an explosive performance. The combination of favorable game script and offensive conditions supports a run environment conducive to exceeding the total points.
WNBA
📅 July 12, TBD EST
Featured Game LineOVER 13.5 POINTS — Janelle Salaun (F) [-110]
Matchup: TOR vs NYL The controlled indoor environment of this matchup favors offensive efficiency, likely leading to a high-scoring affair as both teams leverage their shooting capabilities. With Janelle Salaun projected to exceed her points total of 13.5 based on favorable chase metrics and offensive conditions, expect a game script that supports the OVER. The optimal run environment combined with Salaun's expected usage in scoring situations enhances the likelihood of a prolific offensive output.